Sat, Feb 9, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 19 | 211 | 433 |
| VGK | 29 | 03 | 111 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Seth Jones, Boone Jenner · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:36VGKNate SchmidtAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:49VGKJon MerrillSHAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P2 15:31CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Scott Harrington · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 9:21VGKCody EakinAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Colin Miller · Slap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 14:48CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–3
- P3 17:21CBJCam AtkinsonPPGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:27CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:27VGKMax Pacioretty: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:46VGKRyan Reaves: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:22CBJBoone Jenner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:04VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois13:17
xG 0.76–0.37 (68%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Nash – Sedlak – Hannikainen9:43
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson15:22
xG 0.78–1.26 (38%)attempts 15–17goals 1–1
- Duclair – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg6:28
xG 0.02–0.59 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Nutivaara8:13
xG 1.04–0.44 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara2:05
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Werenski – Nutivaara2:55
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare5:52
xG 0.46–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault15:10
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Eakin – Zykov – Nosek5:01
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch13:44
xG 0.50–1.17 (30%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore15:14
xG 1.43–0.51 (74%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Merrill – Miller14:28
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Engelland – Merrill2:02
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).