Sun, Feb 10, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
St. Louis Blues 5, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 04 | 315 | 19 | 11 | 529 |
| NSH | 08 | 117 | 319 | 00 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:56STLAlex PietrangeloPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:41STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:06NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 5:51STLTyler BozakAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 2:48NSHRoman JosiAssists: Kevin Fiala, Ryan Ellis · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 6:10NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Ryan Johansen, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 7:06STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Jay Bouwmeester · Deflected, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 12:53NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- OT 0:16STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:32NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:13STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:31NSHP.K. Subban: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:35NSHCody McLeod: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:06STLMackenzie MacEachern: Interference2 min
- P2 16:30NSHRyan Johansen: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:25STLVladimir Tarasenko: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:37STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Bozak – Schwartz10:01
xG 0.41–0.14 (75%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford8:16
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko10:42
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 15–15goals 2–2
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Thomas4:12
xG 0.00–0.17 (2%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko20:03
xG 1.06–0.57 (65%)attempts 22–22goals 3–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn7:56
xG 0.23–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson13:46
xG 0.33–0.93 (26%)attempts 12–24goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson14:03
xG 1.02–0.49 (67%)attempts 27–15goals 2–1
- Boyle – McLeod – Hartman2:04
xG 0.08–0.09 (48%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala9:33
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Sissons9:30
xG 0.28–0.54 (34%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis14:17
xG 0.80–0.41 (66%)attempts 21–14goals 3–1
- Subban – Ekholm18:34
xG 0.65–0.68 (49%)attempts 27–17goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber10:18
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).