Sun, Feb 10, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 18 | 118 | 235 |
| NJD | 28 | 02 | 111 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35NJDPavel ZachaPPAssists: Ryan Murphy, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 19:03NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Nico Hischier, Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 7:22CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Justin Williams, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 15:56NJDMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 18:33CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.17 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:05NJDKurtis Gabriel: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:05CARMicheal Ferland: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:34NJDDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P1 7:06NJDPavel Zacha: Holding2 min
- P1 9:59CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:00NJDKurtis Gabriel: Interference2 min
- P2 3:43CARJustin Faulk: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:20NJDDrew Stafford: Holding2 min
- P3 1:43NJDDrew Stafford: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:43CARBrock McGinn: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:21CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:06CARNino Niederreiter: Interference2 min
- P3 17:04NJDKurtis Gabriel: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Williams
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho10:47
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- McKegg – Ferland – Teravainen2:14
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov7:11
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark6:36
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin12:23
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk10:08
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce11:49
xG 0.42–0.76 (36%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGabriel – Seney – Rooney6:45
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Zacha – Lappin5:55
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Johansson – Bratt – Hischier7:49
xG 0.45–0.71 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Coleman9:14
xG 0.04–0.46 (7%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lovejoy – Mueller2:39
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Butcher3:11
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Mueller7:04
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).