Sun, Feb 10, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Minnesota Wild 1, New York Islanders 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 16 | 012 | 127 |
| NYI | 115 | 110 | 09 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:05NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Leo Komarov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:38MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 2:01NYIDevon ToewsPPGWGAssists: Ryan Pulock, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:22MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P1 14:46MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:42NYIScott Mayfield: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:28MINAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:45MINJonas Brodin: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:49NYIValtteri Filppula: Interference2 min
- P2 12:19MINGreg Pateryn: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:29NYIMathew Barzal: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin8:38
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Fehr – Rau – Rask4:43
xG 0.01–0.02 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Greenway11:28
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Parise – Coyle – Granlund11:36
xG 0.14–0.49 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Brodin13:19
xG 0.45–0.31 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon14:05
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Suter – Bitetto2:02
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Komarov – Beauvillier9:21
xG 0.77–0.19 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Bailey – Dal Colle – Barzal9:29
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson11:32
xG 0.20–0.28 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Kuhnhackl9:40
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews10:09
xG 0.45–0.16 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:03
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:25
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).