Sun, Feb 10, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 016 | 115 | 114 | 245 |
| CHI | 218 | 011 | 37 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:04CHIDominik KahunAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:03CHIDylan StromeAssists: Dominik Kahun, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 15:00DETChristoffer EhnUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 7:45CHIDominik KahunGWGAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 15:30DETGustav NyquistAssists: Nick Jensen, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 16:27CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:59CHIJonathan ToewsENAssists: Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:30DETGustav Nyquist: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:13CHIBrendan Perlini: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:17DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:04CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestHelm – Glendening – Ehn3:16
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin9:35
xG 0.97–0.22 (81%)attempts 21–2goals 1–2
- de la Rose – Ehn – Rasmussen3:08
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Athanasiou – Mantha3:17
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green16:52
xG 1.27–0.93 (58%)attempts 25–15goals 0–1
- Jensen – DeKeyser14:17
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Cholowski10:47
xG 0.75–0.76 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Anisimov – Hayden5:23
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula15:27
xG 0.90–0.91 (50%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun9:25
xG 0.80–0.83 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 3–1
- Kruger – Saad – Perlini9:47
xG 0.35–0.97 (27%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Gustafsson11:37
xG 1.01–0.72 (58%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Keith – Seabrook18:19
xG 0.82–0.77 (52%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom17:09
xG 0.71–1.49 (32%)attempts 13–26goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).