Sun, Feb 10, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 19 | 23 | 211 | 523 |
| FLA | 05 | 217 | 05 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 12:08TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Anton Stralman, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 13:11FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:51TBLRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 18:50FLADenis MalginAssists: Troy Brouwer, Riley Sheahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 4:25TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:12TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:02TBLRyan Callahan: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:08FLADerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:08TBLYanni Gourde: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:42FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:09TBLBrayden Point: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:47TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:23FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:54TBLNikita Kucherov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 18:24FLAKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:00FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sheahan won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Miller9:08
xG 0.63–0.20 (76%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli8:26
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne7:49
xG 0.00–0.11 (2%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Gourde – Point12:58
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:11
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Coburn – Sergachev12:32
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–1
- Stralman – Hedman13:38
xG 0.46–0.68 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Huberdeau – Vatrano9:36
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Hoffman – Sheahan2:16
xG 0.04–0.02 (74%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Haley – Malgin5:12
xG 0.04–0.03 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Sheahan – Borgstrom5:04
xG 0.19–0.22 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson16:30
xG 0.76–0.64 (54%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad13:54
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ekblad3:05
xG 0.09–0.09 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).