Mon, Feb 11, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 18 | 212 | 428 |
| PHI | 09 | 028 | 114 | 151 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:04PITNick BjugstadGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 14:46PITJake GuentzelAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 15:26PHIJakub VoracekPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–1
- P3 19:47PITKris LetangENAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:17PITNick Bjugstad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:12PHIClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:38PITPatric Hornqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:55PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:06PITEvgeni Malkin: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 18:46PITJake Guentzel: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:46PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Kessel – Bjugstad13:27
xG 0.77–0.75 (51%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Pearson – McCann – Simon5:28
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Simon2:09
xG 0.01–0.04 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Wilson3:07
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin5:55
xG 0.36–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Riikola5:29
xG 0.25–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Maatta – Riikola3:13
xG 0.17–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Laughton – Patrick6:27
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom4:50
xG 0.49–0.29 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Varone – Raffl – Vorobyev3:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny4:19
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov17:47
xG 0.86–0.59 (59%)attempts 30–15goals 0–3
- Gudas – Hagg12:07
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere11:16
xG 0.16–0.37 (30%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).