Mon, Feb 11, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 7, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 310 | 35 | 19 | 724 |
| VAN | 19 | 013 | 15 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:04SJSTimo MeierAssists: Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 3:22SJSEvander KaneAssists: Logan Couture, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 8:48SJSMelker KarlssonGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Barclay Goodrow · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–0
- P1 19:53VANBo HorvatAssists: Elias Pettersson, Troy Stecher · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 4:36SJSEvander KaneAssists: Melker Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P2 11:00SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
- P2 17:30SJSKevin LabancAssists: Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.26 xG6–1
- P3 12:06VANDerrick PouliotAssists: Zack MacEwen, Nikolay Goldobin · Snap, 0.23 xG6–2
- P3 14:05SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brenden Dillon, Tim Heed · Deflected, 0.08 xG7–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:41SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:41SJSEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:41VANTroy Stecher: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:45SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:38VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:43VANErik Gudbranson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Karlsson – Radil9:20
xG 0.49–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl10:58
xG 0.44–0.31 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Meier10:51
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc10:30
xG 0.42–1.33 (24%)attempts 5–16goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon13:49
xG 0.94–0.64 (60%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Burns – Dillon2:19
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Heed12:24
xG 0.38–0.27 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Horvat – Virtanen6:29
xG 0.35–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Granlund – Goldobin – MacEwen3:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Roussel – Horvat – MacEwen2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson12:29
xG 0.50–0.78 (39%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBiega – Pouliot14:35
xG 0.93–0.28 (77%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Hutton – Stecher15:51
xG 0.87–0.92 (49%)attempts 26–14goals 1–3
- Tanev – Gudbranson13:41
xG 0.46–0.52 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).