Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Washington Capitals 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 03 | 013 | 020 |
| CBJ | 011 | 113 | 28 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:32CBJAnthony DuclairGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 16:13CBJNick FolignoAssists: Seth Jones, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 19:50CBJArtemi PanarinENAssists: Josh Anderson · Wrist, 0.55 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:33WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:36WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:36CBJArtemi Panarin: Holding2 min
- P1 18:38WSHMichal Kempny: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:24WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:24CBJRiley Nash: Holding2 min
- P3 4:52WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson6:58
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:41
xG 0.11–0.28 (29%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:05
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana10:38
xG 0.27–0.61 (31%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Kempny2:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Orlov – Djoos2:34
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Kempny3:46
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Jenner – Anderson9:58
xG 0.87–0.08 (91%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Nash – Sedlak – Hannikainen5:54
xG 0.35–0.17 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois9:17
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Duclair – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:55
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Werenski13:13
xG 1.14–0.06 (95%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Harrington – Nutivaara9:49
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Murray – Jones16:23
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).