Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New Jersey Devils 3, St. Louis Blues 8
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 05 | 212 | 323 |
| STL | 320 | 311 | 28 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:41STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P1 10:30NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Kenny Agostino · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 15:47STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P2 0:30STLRyan O'ReillyGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 6:11STLMackenzie MacEachernAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 15:20STLTyler BozakAssists: Colton Parayko, Patrick Maroon · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–6
- P3 0:45STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–7
- P3 8:01NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Nico Hischier, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–7
- P3 9:25STLIvan BarbashevSHAssists: Alexander Steen, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–8
- P3 12:44NJDMirco MuellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–8
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:45NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:13NJDEric Gryba: Holding2 min
- P2 19:58STLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:58NJDKurtis Gabriel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:58NJDKurtis Gabriel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:23STLVince Dunn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:48STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Bratt – Hischier11:02
xG 0.31–0.15 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Agostino – Zacha – Lappin9:03
xG 0.13–0.33 (28%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
- Seney – Lappin – Rooney2:52
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Zajac – Johansson – Palmieri14:09
xG 0.20–0.56 (27%)attempts 6–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Butcher – Mueller2:24
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Severson – Mueller2:16
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson13:34
xG 0.41–0.54 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMacEachern – Barbashev – Thomas9:21
xG 1.00–0.20 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- O'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko11:44
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Steen – Bozak – Schwartz10:16
xG 0.35–0.11 (77%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford11:46
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson14:22
xG 1.04–0.39 (73%)attempts 15–11goals 3–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko15:35
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn12:52
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).