Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 211 | 28 | 526 |
| MIN | 313 | 011 | 115 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Phil Varone · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 8:58MINZach ParisePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P1 10:45MINLuke KuninUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 13:28MINLuke KuninAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 8:42PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 13:57PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Sanheim, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 2:06MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Ryan Suter, Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 6:30PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 15:31PHIJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.41 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:19PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:28PHIRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:02PHIScott Laughton: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:12PHIRobert Hagg: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:37MINEric Fehr: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:02MINZach Parise: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:17PHINolan Patrick: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:11MINNick Seeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:33MINRyan Suter: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier7:31
xG 0.39–0.23 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Simmonds – Lindblom – Patrick7:13
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick4:05
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Varone – Raffl – Bailey4:06
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hagg2:40
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere5:10
xG 0.12–0.33 (26%)attempts 4–6goals 0–3
- Sanheim – Provorov18:06
xG 0.60–0.96 (38%)attempts 13–21goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Greenway11:24
xG 0.84–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin4:33
xG 0.21–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Fehr – Foligno2:36
xG 0.01–0.03 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Parise – Coyle – Granlund11:50
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon12:53
xG 1.16–0.47 (71%)attempts 23–13goals 3–1
- Bitetto – Brodin14:35
xG 0.71–0.37 (66%)attempts 21–3goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Seeler13:22
xG 0.33–0.30 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).