Tue, Feb 12, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 217 | 110 | 337 |
| WPG | 219 | 09 | 28 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Joe Morrow, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 18:36WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 0:38NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 19:19NYRPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Tony DeAngelo · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:57NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 5:22WPGJoe MorrowAssists: Mark Scheifele, Ben Chiarot · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 7:21WPGAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Mason Appleton, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:16WPGBen Chiarot: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:49NYRJesper Fast: Interference2 min
- P2 9:54NYRNeal Pionk: Interference2 min
- P2 17:37WPGDustin Byfuglien: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:42WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:03WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Namestnikov7:55
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vesey – Buchnevich9:39
xG 0.54–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–9goals 0–2
- Fast – Strome – Chytil2:01
xG 0.15–0.11 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vesey – Nieves – Chytil2:04
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Skjei15:43
xG 0.73–0.57 (56%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Shattenkirk – DeAngelo3:11
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith7:23
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Lemieux – Appleton6:23
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev9:28
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor14:40
xG 0.67–0.56 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 3–1
- Little – Roslovic – Laine10:16
xG 0.30–0.58 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot17:07
xG 0.68–0.56 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:44
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Myers – Morrow12:26
xG 0.59–0.64 (48%)attempts 13–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).