Thu, Feb 14, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Calgary Flames 2, Florida Panthers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 016 | 215 | 02 | 1 | 243 |
| FLA | 010 | 112 | 15 | 05 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:17FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Mark Pysyk, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P3 6:51CGYMark JankowskiAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mike Smith · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 11:59FLAMike HoffmanAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 17:36CGYElias LindholmAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 4. CGY Andrew Mangiapane stopped
- 5. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
- 6. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:48CGYOliver Kylington: Holding2 min
- P2 16:14FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 1:11FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:37FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:51FLADerick Brassard: Delaying game bench2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk5:08
xG 0.49–0.18 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Mangiapane6:30
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Mangiapane2:17
xG 0.08–0.00 (96%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk3:45
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie18:36
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Andersson – Kylington10:36
xG 0.17–0.42 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Hanifin16:12
xG 0.89–1.15 (44%)attempts 22–19goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sheahan – Hawryluk5:39
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Vatrano13:39
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Trocheck12:52
xG 0.60–0.57 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Brassard – Malgin – Borgstrom7:04
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrown – McCoshen8:24
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Yandle – Pysyk19:19
xG 1.09–1.03 (51%)attempts 16–23goals 2–0
- Matheson – Ekblad18:05
xG 0.56–0.60 (48%)attempts 20–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).