Thu, Feb 14, 2019·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 012 | 07 | 032 |
| TBL | 410 | 214 | 02 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 12:39TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 12:53TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P1 14:40TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 8:23TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
- P2 16:28TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:41DALTaylor Fedun: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:11DALMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:14TBLJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:10DALTyler Seguin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 3:49DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:07DALJamie Benn: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:07TBLAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:07DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Janmark – Gurianov8:33
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin7:32
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Benn – Dickinson – Nichushkin2:12
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Nichushkin – Hintz5:07
xG 0.02–0.03 (47%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Oleksiak5:09
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fedun – Lindell7:58
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Heiskanen2:55
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Gourde – Point10:49
xG 0.89–0.41 (68%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Palat8:21
xG 0.15–0.27 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Miller – Cirelli11:38
xG 0.29–0.54 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Paquette – Erne – Joseph10:31
xG 0.02–0.33 (6%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman16:55
xG 0.57–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sergachev15:10
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Stralman – McDonagh13:57
xG 0.48–0.83 (36%)attempts 12–19goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).