Thu, Feb 14, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 118 | 213 | 312 | 643 |
| VGK | 08 | 211 | 114 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:14TORAndreas JohnssonPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:46VGKPaul StastnySHAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 7:22VGKOscar LindbergAssists: Cody Eakin, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 8:52TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Auston Matthews, Kasperi Kapanen · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 13:25TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 4:12VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jon Merrill, Jonathan Marchessault · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 10:01TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P3 10:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 16:33TORMitch MarnerSHAssists: Connor Brown, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.17 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:23VGKShea Theodore: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:39VGKColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:33VGKJon Merrill: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:28VGKBrayden McNabb: Kneeing2 min
- P2 4:49TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P2 12:28VGKOscar Lindberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:32VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:41TORJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
- P3 15:12TORFrederik Gauthier: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kapanen – Matthews11:46
xG 0.74–0.31 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Kadri – Johnsson – Nylander2:14
xG 0.24–0.00 (98%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner12:41
xG 0.69–0.53 (57%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander4:58
xG 0.05–0.14 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Dermott11:44
xG 0.58–0.24 (71%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly12:21
xG 0.79–0.53 (60%)attempts 20–12goals 2–1
- Muzzin – Zaitsev13:43
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare7:33
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pirri – Eakin – Lindberg9:05
xG 0.22–0.20 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch10:19
xG 0.48–0.74 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:01
xG 0.19–0.59 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Theodore2:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller12:27
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt10:59
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).