Fri, Feb 15, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 19 | 38 | 629 |
| BUF | 011 | 29 | 013 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:09NYRBoo NievesAssists: Brendan Smith, Connor Brickley · Snap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 14:03NYRJesper FastAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Tony DeAngelo · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 0:53BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 1:51NYRJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P2 16:56BUFJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 15:59NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Kevin Hayes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 16:07NYRVladislav NamestnikovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
- P3 19:02NYRVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Ryan Strome, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.75 xG6–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:55NYRAdam McQuaid: Interference2 min
- P2 15:11NYRBoo Nieves: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:09NYRKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:51NYRTony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:51BUFKyle Okposo: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:35BUFJack Eichel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:35NYRRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestFast – Strome – Namestnikov11:28
xG 0.59–0.33 (65%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad13:46
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Hayes – Vesey – Buchnevich9:59
xG 0.40–0.69 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – DeAngelo12:37
xG 0.74–0.18 (81%)attempts 16–8goals 3–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith3:56
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Smith4:41
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Thompson – Smith4:56
xG 0.45–0.13 (78%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:10
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel6:07
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel8:46
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Dahlin15:24
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Scandella2:12
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McCabe – Pilut13:39
xG 0.53–0.57 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).