Fri, Feb 15, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 017 | 012 | 141 |
| CAR | 29 | 05 | 113 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Sebastian Aho, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 1:32EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 2:16CARLucas WallmarkGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 16:23CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Sebastian Aho, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:39EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:24CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:20CARNino Niederreiter: Holding2 min
- P2 17:18CARNino Niederreiter: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:03CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:03EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:49EDMAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKhaira – Cave – Puljujarvi3:10
xG 0.30–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lucic – Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins8:31
xG 0.28–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Malone – Khaira – Puljujarvi4:32
xG 0.06–0.05 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lucic – Rattie – Cave2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Gravel10:07
xG 0.45–0.32 (59%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Russell – Klefbom2:29
xG 0.03–0.04 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Nurse16:16
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho13:00
xG 0.98–0.42 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele5:56
xG 0.20–0.21 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov9:18
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark10:44
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – van Riemsdyk14:12
xG 0.52–0.41 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce14:18
xG 0.63–0.63 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Hamilton – Slavin16:57
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).