Fri, Feb 15, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 07 | 213 | 27 | 11 | 528 |
| MIN | 212 | 29 | 08 | 03 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:07MINBrad HuntPPAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 9:55MINJoel Eriksson EkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 0:26NJDMarcus JohanssonUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 2:33MINNick SeelerAssists: Brad Hunt, Kyle Rau · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 7:19MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P2 18:10NJDWill ButcherAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 8:16NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 17:15NJDBen LovejoyAssists: Kenny Agostino, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 3:19NJDNico HischierGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Backhand, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:38NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:33MINZach Parise: Holding2 min
- P2 14:07MINCharlie Coyle: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00NJDDamon Severson: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:33MINNick Seeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:09MINJared Spurgeon: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Bratt – Hischier9:40
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–11goals 2–0
- Agostino – Zacha – Anderson7:01
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Stafford – Gabriel – Rooney3:10
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Wood7:32
xG 0.06–0.28 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson8:13
xG 0.38–0.29 (56%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Greene – Mueller2:29
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Lovejoy – Butcher9:05
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Greenway10:21
xG 0.35–0.21 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Kunin7:31
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
- Parise – Coyle – Granlund10:54
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin12:16
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon10:56
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Seeler6:25
xG 0.01–0.25 (5%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).