Sat, Feb 16, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 014 | 011 | 38 | 333 |
| COL | 08 | 011 | 013 | 032 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:01STLVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 4:58STLZachary SanfordAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Patrick Maroon · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 18:24STLJaden SchwartzENAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:16COLA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 2:16STLRobert Bortuzzo: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:12COLPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:54STLZachary Sanford: Interference2 min
- P2 12:11STLBrayden Schenn: Interference2 min
- P2 12:12COLMikko Rantanen: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:12STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:45COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:04STLMackenzie MacEachern: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko10:20
xG 0.92–0.40 (70%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford9:15
xG 0.61–0.12 (83%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Thomas6:04
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Fabbri10:03
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko14:32
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn10:58
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson12:21
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:34
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Toninato – Andrighetto – Greer3:50
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Compher – Jost2:00
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost7:24
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard12:48
xG 0.59–0.26 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov5:50
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov6:50
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).