Sat, Feb 16, 2019·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 013 | 110 | 113 | 236 |
| NYI | 010 | 27 | 37 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:02NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Devon Toews, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 13:30NYIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Nick Leddy, Johnny Boychuk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 19:57EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Kris Russell, Tobias Rieder · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:09NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 10:20EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 17:44NYIAnders LeeAssists: Leo Komarov · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:16NYIBrock NelsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 16:03EDMSam Gagner: Interference2 min
- P1 17:00NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:23EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:25NYIJohnny Boychuk: Interference2 min
- P2 16:19EDMKevin Gravel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:08NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:08EDMDarnell Nurse: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:08NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:39NYILeo Komarov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:58NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:54NYIBrock Nelson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid9:51
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Malone – Rattie – Cave2:34
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid5:14
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Kassian4:37
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Gravel3:36
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Russell – Nurse10:37
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom19:24
xG 0.59–0.53 (53%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Kuhnhackl – Barzal11:25
xG 0.41–0.36 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:22
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Beauvillier6:21
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson10:50
xG 0.27–0.69 (28%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Leddy14:49
xG 0.63–0.70 (48%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:17
xG 0.47–0.87 (35%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Toews13:28
xG 0.14–0.66 (18%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).