Sat, Feb 16, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 4, Winnipeg Jets 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 113 | 114 | 110 | 14 | 441 |
| WPG | 28 | 08 | 19 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38OTTMark StonePPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 2:56WPGBrandon TanevSHAssists: Adam Lowry · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 5:33WPGTyler MyersSHAssists: Brandon Tanev · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 13:53OTTRudolfs BalcersPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Christian Jaros · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 0:47OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone · Slap, 0.36 xG3–2
- P3 14:01WPGTyler MyersAssists: Jack Roslovic, Bryan Little · Slap, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 3:44OTTRyan DzingelGWGAssists: Chris Tierney, Christian Jaros · Backhand, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:19WPGDmitry Kulikov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 3:40WPGDmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P1 13:22OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:18WPGBrandon Tanev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:48WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:16WPGJacob Trouba: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 11:27OTTBobby Ryan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Tierney – Balcers2:37
xG 0.73–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Stone – White – Tkachuk9:48
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau9:30
xG 0.20–0.16 (54%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel4:38
xG 0.10–0.27 (28%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lajoie11:56
xG 1.06–0.18 (85%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot2:11
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Harpur – Jaros12:05
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Lemieux – Appleton5:06
xG 0.28–0.12 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:56
xG 0.53–0.51 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev8:52
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Little – Roslovic – Laine9:00
xG 0.22–1.15 (16%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chiarot – Niku12:32
xG 0.18–0.33 (34%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Myers – Kulikov11:43
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey14:31
xG 0.27–1.14 (19%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).