Sat, Feb 16, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Dallas Stars 0, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 015 | 011 | 07 | 033 |
| CAR | 28 | 04 | 115 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:09CARJustin WilliamsGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 8:31CARBrock McGinnAssists: Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 16:08CARMicheal FerlandPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Lucas Wallmark · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:30CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 12:03CARPetr Mrazek: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:43DALAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin15:29
xG 0.54–0.93 (37%)attempts 20–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell17:09
xG 0.57–0.31 (65%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Fedun – Oleksiak10:29
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen13:16
xG 0.80–0.64 (56%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – McGinn – Svechnikov10:42
xG 0.51–0.17 (75%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark11:14
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho13:49
xG 0.61–0.56 (52%)attempts 12–19goals 1–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele8:31
xG 0.40–0.65 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Pesce17:31
xG 1.00–0.50 (67%)attempts 18–22goals 2–0
- Hamilton – Slavin17:51
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk14:11
xG 0.68–0.77 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).