Sat, Feb 16, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Boston Bruins 4, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 19 | 27 | 424 |
| LAK | 08 | 111 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:31BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Peter Cehlarik, David Krejci · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:37LAKIlya KovalchukPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 16:15BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 15:37LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Paul LaDue, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 18:47BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:23BOSPatrice BergeronUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:59BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:25LAKMatt Roy: Interference2 min
- P2 5:26LAKCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:55BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:22BOSZdeno Chara: Holding2 min
- P2 17:45BOSNoel Acciari: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:00BOSBrad Marchand: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Cehlarik – DeBrusk6:49
xG 0.81–0.08 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Heinen8:26
xG 0.48–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari10:06
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Nordstrom – Frederic – Kuhlman4:33
xG 0.06–0.19 (24%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy12:53
xG 1.42–0.07 (95%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Krug – Carlo10:56
xG 0.53–0.12 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk11:09
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Hagelin – Kempe8:22
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Leipsic9:31
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo9:21
xG 0.03–0.38 (7%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Lewis – Clifford – Wagner9:00
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLaDue – Fantenberg13:25
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Doughty – Fantenberg2:10
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Roy10:56
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).