Sun, Feb 17, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 114 | 216 | 214 | 544 |
| PIT | 114 | 216 | 311 | 641 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:11PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 19:20NYRMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 11:41PITMarcus PetterssonPPAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 14:09PITBrian DumoulinAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 14:35NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 17:45NYRRyan StromeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 4:36PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 7:24PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Zachary Aston-Reese · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 9:55PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese, Phil Kessel · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 14:14NYRKevin HayesAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 19:42NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:16NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:41PITBryan Rust: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:45NYRNeal Pionk: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:53NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:55NYRMika Zibanejad: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:47PITSidney Crosby: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad12:51
xG 1.17–0.71 (62%)attempts 17–15goals 1–1
- Strome – Namestnikov – Chytil8:12
xG 0.64–0.24 (72%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Hayes – Vesey – Buchnevich8:53
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Claesson9:12
xG 0.96–0.22 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- McQuaid – DeAngelo9:12
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – DeAngelo2:25
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese2:57
xG 0.46–0.02 (96%)attempts 8–2goals 2–0
- Cullen – Simon – Aston-Reese3:49
xG 0.07–0.05 (58%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Cullen – Blueger – Simon2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – McCann2:54
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Schultz13:18
xG 0.56–0.62 (47%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson11:19
xG 0.52–0.67 (43%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin15:50
xG 0.72–1.27 (36%)attempts 17–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).