Sun, Feb 17, 2019·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 4, Minnesota Wild 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 211 | 214 | 05 | 430 |
| MIN | 05 | 09 | 017 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08STLVladimir TarasenkoPPGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 19:30STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 7:27STLVince DunnAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 12:06STLBrayden SchennAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Backhand, 0.09 xG4–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:49MINJordan Greenway: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:32MINMarcus Foligno: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:11STLAlex Pietrangelo: Holding2 min
- P2 13:23MINAlex Stalock: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P2 14:12MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:41MINZach Parise: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27STLRobert Bortuzzo: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:21STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:34STLRobert Bortuzzo: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:55STLRobert Thomas: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko9:35
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Bozak – Schwartz – Fabbri7:30
xG 0.39–0.31 (56%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- MacEachern – Barbashev – Thomas5:27
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford10:13
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn9:57
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:10
xG 0.47–0.51 (48%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson13:27
xG 0.14–0.57 (19%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek4:55
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Coyle10:00
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Parise – Granlund – Kunin7:47
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Seeler9:22
xG 0.36–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon12:16
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin13:16
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).