Sun, Feb 17, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 1, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 112 | 011 | 135 |
| NJD | 011 | 27 | 26 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:25NJDMiles WoodAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Travis Zajac · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 13:38NJDJesper BrattPPGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 19:04BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jack Eichel · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:09NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 16:51NJDJoey AndersonENAssists: Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:26NJDDamon Severson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:42BUFJason Pominville: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:06BUFVladimir Sobotka: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:00NJDEric Gryba: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:40NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel14:18
xG 0.74–0.42 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Sheary – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt11:35
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Girgensons8:26
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Thompson – Smith8:05
xG 0.19–0.16 (55%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Dahlin13:53
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Pilut14:13
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Bogosian – Dahlin3:24
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestAgostino – Rooney – Anderson8:42
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Wood11:58
xG 0.48–0.59 (45%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Stafford – Gabriel – Seney6:47
xG 0.09–0.37 (20%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Johansson – Bratt – Hischier11:13
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Severson15:09
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Gryba – Mueller13:23
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher12:19
xG 0.21–0.48 (30%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).