Sun, Feb 17, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 3, Florida Panthers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 217 | 111 | 03 | 331 |
| FLA | 310 | 114 | 212 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.41 xG0–1
- P1 11:28FLADenis MalginAssists: Derick Brassard, Henrik Borgstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 13:04MTLMax DomiAssists: Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 13:57FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P1 16:46MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P2 5:18MTLMax DomiAssists: Mike Reilly, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 17:49FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 9:13FLAAleksander BarkovUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 17:35FLARiley SheahanENAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman · Tip-in, 0.77 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:52MTLMax Domi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:32FLAMike Hoffman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:06FLAMark Pysyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:20MTLPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:12MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:52FLAJoshua Brown: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Shaw – Domi11:35
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:36
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Thompson – Weise – Hudon8:30
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin9:38
xG 0.41–1.57 (21%)attempts 11–14goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak12:06
xG 0.86–0.27 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Petry – Reilly9:42
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Reilly – Kulak2:41
xG 0.01–0.01 (40%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Barkov – Vatrano12:58
xG 2.00–0.59 (77%)attempts 18–15goals 3–1
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hawryluk9:01
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Trocheck10:26
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Brassard – Malgin – Borgstrom9:42
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ekblad16:29
xG 1.88–0.82 (70%)attempts 20–15goals 2–1
- Yandle – Brown6:46
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pysyk – McCoshen4:48
xG 0.03–0.02 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).