Sun, Feb 17, 2019·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 18 | 19 | 08 | 225 |
| ANA | 016 | 29 | 314 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Jakub Vrana · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 6:26ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Brandon Montour, Jaycob Megna · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:07ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Adam Henrique, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:01WSHJohn CarlsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 0:37ANAAdam HenriquePPGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 3:40ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 14:55ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Derek Grant, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:58ANAHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:05ANACorey Perry: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 18:30WSHAndre Burakovsky: Boarding2 min
- P2 19:33WSHTom Wilson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 3:02WSHDmitrij Jaskin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:36WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:16ANAMax Jones: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:01ANANick Ritchie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:01WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Vrana4:38
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:09
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Burakovsky3:14
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Connolly – Vrana6:04
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Djoos9:14
xG 0.75–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen3:14
xG 0.25–0.44 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Djoos – Kempny3:50
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Rakell11:08
xG 1.05–0.14 (88%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Jones10:23
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Shore11:44
xG 0.55–0.47 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Kesler – Rowney – Ritchie8:49
xG 0.38–0.34 (53%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm15:41
xG 1.17–0.48 (71%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Fowler13:42
xG 0.82–0.14 (86%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Megna – Montour15:24
xG 0.71–1.04 (41%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).