Mon, Feb 18, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 011 | 014 | 015 | 040 |
| COL | 115 | 113 | 110 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36COLTyson JostGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 5:47COLAndrew AgozzinoAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 6:53COLMatt CalvertAssists: Matt Nieto, Andrew Agozzino · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:34COLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:22COLJ.T. Compher: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:14VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:44VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:28COLSamuel Girard: Interference2 min
- P3 4:22VGKJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:14COLNikita Zadorov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pirri – Tuch4:35
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek7:27
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch5:12
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Pirri – Eakin – Lindberg4:06
xG 0.17–0.22 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore12:09
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore2:39
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt13:25
xG 0.59–0.83 (42%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Nieto – Rantanen10:19
xG 0.66–0.05 (93%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – MacKinnon12:14
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Calvert – Landeskog – Jost7:59
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Agozzino – Compher – Greer3:56
xG 0.01–0.31 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard11:51
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard3:26
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Barrie – Zadorov2:05
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).