Tue, Feb 19, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 2, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 112 | 116 | 234 |
| FLA | 012 | 012 | 417 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:14BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P3 3:07FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Frank Vatrano, Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 3:50FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Evgenii Dadonov · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 5:42FLAAleksander BarkovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:45FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 19:52BUFVladimir SobotkaAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:52BUFVladimir Sobotka: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:22BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:38FLAVincent Trocheck: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:35FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:57BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:11FLAJoshua Brown: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 10:24BUFJack Eichel: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:38FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestRodrigues – Thompson – Smith7:15
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Larsson – Girgensons9:46
xG 0.25–0.22 (53%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Mittelstadt9:18
xG 0.41–0.52 (44%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Pominville – Skinner – Eichel10:15
xG 0.14–0.92 (13%)attempts 10–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Dahlin11:16
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- McCabe – Ristolainen12:50
xG 0.44–0.65 (41%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Pilut9:54
xG 0.05–0.62 (8%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Barkov – Vatrano10:50
xG 1.19–0.10 (93%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Hawryluk2:13
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Brassard – Hoffman – Sheahan3:07
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Hoffman – Trocheck7:37
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad5:59
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–8goals 2–0
- Yandle – Brown2:56
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Pysyk – McCoshen3:47
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).