Tue, Feb 19, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 29 | 08 | 428 |
| NJD | 212 | 08 | 116 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14NJDJesper BrattAssists: Marcus Johansson, Mirco Mueller · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 6:49PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 12:12NJDMarcus JohanssonAssists: Mirco Mueller, Jesper Bratt · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 18:24PITNick BjugstadPPAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 10:45PITBryan RustAssists: Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 17:29PITChad RuhwedelGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 15:10NJDMiles WoodAssists: Damon Severson, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:17PITEvgeni Malkin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:30NJDBrett Seney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:42PITPhil Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:09NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Bjugstad – McCann11:22
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel13:36
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Cullen – Pearson – Simon6:24
xG 0.41–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese11:37
xG 0.41–0.83 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin18:19
xG 1.02–0.20 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Ruhwedel – Pettersson14:15
xG 1.05–0.29 (78%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz13:33
xG 0.42–1.75 (19%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Bratt – Hischier12:15
xG 1.27–0.64 (66%)attempts 20–14goals 1–1
- Zajac – Palmieri – Wood13:49
xG 0.50–0.70 (42%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Stafford – Seney – Rooney3:12
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stafford – Agostino – Rooney2:47
xG 0.01–0.29 (2%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher14:24
xG 1.76–0.73 (71%)attempts 19–16goals 0–1
- Gryba – Mueller12:54
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 2–0
- Greene – Severson16:08
xG 0.44–0.81 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).