Tue, Feb 19, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 313 | 08 | 212 | 533 |
| PHI | 07 | 014 | 29 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 5:13TBLAlex KillornAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Adam Erne · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 10:23TBLJ.T. MillerGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P3 1:03PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Sean Couturier, Michael Raffl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 7:42TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
- P3 10:51PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 19:23TBLRyan McDonaghENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:33PHIPhil Varone: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P1 18:59TBLAdam Erne: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:00TBLDanick Martel: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:08TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:17TBLTyler Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 2:17PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:43PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:19PHIPhil Varone: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:11PHIRadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:23PHIWayne Simmonds: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Paquette – Martel8:43
xG 1.10–0.05 (95%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Miller11:03
xG 0.40–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Killorn – Erne – Cirelli6:27
xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Kucherov – Gourde9:44
xG 0.13–0.78 (14%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Girardi2:34
xG 0.61–0.13 (83%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak12:43
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Girardi – Sergachev11:46
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Couturier – Lindblom5:44
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Varone – Raffl – Bailey2:59
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier3:37
xG 0.20–0.36 (36%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick10:29
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gostisbehere – Sanheim2:10
xG 0.10–0.09 (54%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov16:19
xG 0.69–0.68 (50%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Gudas – Gostisbehere3:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).