Tue, Feb 19, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 18 | 110 | 226 |
| CAR | 012 | 114 | 018 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:53CARJordan MartinookAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 10:40NYRConnor BrickleyAssists: Filip Chytil, Tony DeAngelo · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 6:10NYRVladislav NamestnikovGWGAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:56NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:04CARJustin Faulk: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:43NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P3 2:49CARLucas Wallmark: Holding2 min
- P3 4:08CARBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:04CARJustin Faulk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Williams
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zuccarello – Zibanejad12:25
xG 1.03–0.27 (79%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hayes – Vesey – Buchnevich9:42
xG 0.59–0.74 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fast – Strome – Namestnikov7:09
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Brickley – Nieves – Chytil6:18
xG 0.13–0.46 (22%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – DeAngelo14:11
xG 0.68–1.02 (40%)attempts 14–28goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Skjei16:18
xG 0.63–1.03 (38%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith10:05
xG 0.58–1.05 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – McGinn – Svechnikov9:42
xG 1.04–0.23 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark7:23
xG 0.73–0.36 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Niederreiter – Aho14:18
xG 1.16–0.87 (57%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele4:47
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin13:15
xG 2.06–0.68 (75%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk9:41
xG 0.58–0.12 (82%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- de Haan – Hamilton3:04
xG 0.19–0.12 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).