Tue, Feb 19, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 115 | 219 | 213 | 547 |
| DAL | 013 | 313 | 013 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50NSHBrian BoyleAssists: Roman Josi, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
- P2 3:31DALJason SpezzaAssists: Mattias Janmark, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 10:57NSHRocco GrimaldiAssists: Ryan Hartman, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 17:29DALEsa LindellPPAssists: Jason Spezza, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 17:55DALTyler SeguinAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 18:16NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Ellis · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 7:35NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Kyle Turris, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 19:29NSHRoman JosiENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:43DALRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:39NSHBrian Boyle: Holding2 min
- P2 15:44NSHDan Hamhuis: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:03DALJason Spezza: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:53DALMiro Heiskanen: Interference2 min
- P3 5:53NSHRyan Hartman: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:06
xG 1.31–0.35 (79%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- Bonino – Grimaldi – Hartman9:41
xG 0.66–0.38 (63%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – Jarnkrok – Gaudreau10:41
xG 0.74–0.53 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Turris – Sissons – Fiala9:10
xG 0.92–0.76 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber9:27
xG 1.18–0.29 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm21:07
xG 1.37–0.81 (63%)attempts 30–18goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis16:32
xG 1.16–1.30 (47%)attempts 19–21goals 2–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Cogliano – Benn – Faksa9:24
xG 0.71–0.90 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Spezza – Janmark – Dickinson10:08
xG 0.57–0.88 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Hintz13:09
xG 0.64–1.07 (38%)attempts 10–26goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Nichushkin – L'Esperance6:38
xG 0.07–0.55 (11%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Lindell3:30
xG 0.22–0.12 (63%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Fedun – Lindell3:16
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen10:54
xG 0.87–1.05 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).