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Ice Lab

Wed, Feb 20, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver

Winnipeg Jets 1, Colorado Avalanche 7

Away

Winnipeg Jets

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.

COL winsWPG wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WPG0110818127
COL015215516746

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:39COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Tyson Jost, Sven Andrighetto · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:21COLMikko RantanenGWGAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
  3. P3 0:59COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.18 xG0–3
  4. P3 1:10COLMatt CalvertAssists: Carl Soderberg, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–4
  5. P3 1:57WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine · Deflected, 0.22 xG1–4
  6. P3 5:12COLTyson JostAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
  7. P3 17:41COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–6
  8. P3 19:26COLA.J. GreerAssists: J.T. Compher, Ryan Graves · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–7
Penalties (20)
  1. P1 19:27WPGBryan Little: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 1:35WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 3:58WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 7:24COLErik Johnson: Slashing2 min
  5. P2 12:14COLA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 19:48WPGJacob Trouba: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P3 1:26COLPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 3:09WPGDmitry Kulikov: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 6:42COLPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
  10. P3 6:42WPGMathieu Perreault: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 7:25COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 7:25WPGJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 8:13COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 8:13WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 8:13COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 11:46WPGBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  17. P3 18:13WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 18:13COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 0:00COLA.J. Greer: Slashing2 min
  20. P3 0:00WPGBrendan Lemieux: Game misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WPG00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
46% to win54% to win
← WPG attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Soderberg won the faceoff against Scheifele
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WPGCOL
27Shots on goal46
2.3Expected goals4.6
52Shot attempts74
26Faceoffs won33
4Power plays6
33Penalty minutes21
34Hits17
17Blocked shots16
5Giveaways6
6Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Winnipeg Jets

Forward lines

  1. bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor8:04

    xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1

  2. Perreault – Lowry – Tanev5:58

    xG 0.18–0.18 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

  3. Little – Roslovic – Laine6:33

    xG 0.07–0.15 (31%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0

  4. Copp – Lemieux – Appleton6:41

    xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMyers – Kulikov11:15

    xG 0.57–0.50 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0

  2. Chiarot – Niku11:54

    xG 0.76–0.86 (47%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2

  3. Trouba – Morrissey12:28

    xG 0.42–0.82 (34%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestAgozzino – Compher – Greer4:44

    xG 0.64–0.19 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0

  2. Calvert – Landeskog – MacKinnon2:00

    xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Soderberg – Nieto – Rantanen7:18

    xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0

  4. Calvert – Landeskog – Jost6:11

    xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestJohnson – Girard9:51

    xG 0.87–0.62 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0

  2. Graves – Girard2:44

    xG 0.09–0.02 (81%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Barrie – Graves7:26

    xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 4.6 xGWPG 2.3 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLWPG

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1058 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.68 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
WPG 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.

COL winsWPG wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).