Thu, Feb 21, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Florida Panthers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 110 | 19 | 26 | 425 |
| FLA | 010 | 39 | 011 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12CARJustin WilliamsAssists: Brett Pesce · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 4:35CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Justin Williams, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 6:53FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Jayce Hawryluk · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 9:49FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 11:08FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 0:19CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Nino Niederreiter · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 2:15CARJustin WilliamsPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:56FLAMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:46FLAMark Pysyk: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:17CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:50FLAVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:31CARLucas Wallmark: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:38CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:36FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:08FLAAaron Ekblad: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52FLAIan McCoshen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:20FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 5:20FLAFrank Vatrano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 9:54CARMicheal Ferland: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:31CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho11:44
xG 1.05–0.62 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- McKegg – Maenalanen – Foegele7:50
xG 0.33–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Ferland – Teravainen – Wallmark11:11
xG 0.00–0.38 (1%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov8:56
xG 0.03–0.41 (8%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin14:49
xG 0.76–0.65 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk10:35
xG 0.19–0.35 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce16:02
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Trocheck – Hawryluk10:34
xG 0.72–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Malgin – Borgstrom5:15
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Barkov – Vatrano9:23
xG 0.34–0.36 (49%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Brassard – Hoffman – Sheahan8:01
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad12:24
xG 0.94–0.73 (56%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Brown – McCoshen11:57
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Weegar12:48
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).