Thu, Feb 21, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 0, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 04 | 016 | 010 | 030 |
| NJD | 214 | 210 | 07 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Miles Wood, Will Butcher · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:34NJDSteven SantiniAssists: Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 3:40NJDKurtis GabrielAssists: Brett Seney · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 14:52NJDMiles WoodAssists: Damon Severson, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.18 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:17OTTBen Harpur: Holding2 min
- P1 18:22OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:28NJDJoey Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:57NJDMiles Wood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:57NJDEric Gryba: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:49NJDWill Butcher: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Chlapik – Balcers4:44
xG 0.64–0.06 (91%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – White – Tkachuk4:15
xG 0.09–0.03 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Chlapik2:18
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Smith – Paajarvi – Pageau3:11
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Jaros9:34
xG 0.71–0.09 (89%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Goloubef – Chabot3:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Chabot2:00
xG 0.03–0.14 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Wood5:30
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Anderson3:04
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Stafford – Rooney – Anderson7:20
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stafford – Agostino – Rooney2:44
xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Mueller14:03
xG 0.55–0.46 (54%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson13:00
xG 0.36–0.63 (36%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Butcher – Santini13:58
xG 0.57–0.87 (40%)attempts 15–19goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).