Thu, Feb 21, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Montréal Canadiens 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 010 | 112 | 130 |
| MTL | 315 | 211 | 014 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Phillip Danault, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:11MTLJesperi KotkaniemiGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 10:33MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 2:56MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Andrew Shaw, Shea Weber · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 6:48MTLTomas TatarAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–5
- P3 10:23PHIMichael RafflAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Travis Konecny · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:47MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:24MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:27MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:33PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:33MTLBrendan Gallagher: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Kotkaniemi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Raffl – Konecny11:27
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Patrick7:30
xG 0.49–0.27 (64%)attempts 9–11goals 0–3
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Patrick4:36
xG 0.09–0.06 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Varone – Bailey4:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Myers14:52
xG 0.76–0.04 (95%)attempts 24–6goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Gostisbehere2:31
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Provorov – Myers2:30
xG 0.01–0.02 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Peca – Lehkonen11:20
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin11:26
xG 0.56–0.40 (59%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi10:33
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Tatar – Shaw – Domi12:26
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly15:03
xG 0.86–0.19 (82%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Benn2:10
xG 0.22–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Kulak14:34
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).