Thu, Feb 21, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 1, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 010 | 07 | 112 | 129 |
| NSH | 110 | 113 | 06 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:50NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 0:46NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 9:24LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Austin Wagner, Dion Phaneuf · Slap, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:47LAKDrew Doughty: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 11:54NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:21LAKDion Phaneuf: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:21NSHBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:58LAKTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:02NSHMattias Ekholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 3:26LAKOscar Fantenberg: Holding2 min
- P3 9:59NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:12
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Lewis2:58
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Leipsic – Kempe2:36
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lewis – Leipsic – Kempe8:32
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Doughty2:33
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Roy – Fantenberg11:44
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Phaneuf – Walker10:10
xG 0.41–0.61 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Grimaldi – Sissons3:47
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson7:56
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Fiala10:57
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bonino – Hartman6:53
xG 0.10–0.35 (21%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Irwin7:46
xG 0.61–0.03 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Ekholm3:04
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis15:35
xG 0.64–0.50 (56%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).