Thu, Feb 21, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 2, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 218 | 015 | 245 |
| DAL | 08 | 48 | 19 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:46DALJamie BennAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 8:53DALRadek FaksaAssists: Esa Lindell, Blake Comeau · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 9:58DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 12:57STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 15:56DALJamie BennAssists: Esa Lindell, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 19:37STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Jaden Schwartz · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 19:16DALTyler SeguinENAssists: Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:36STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:06DALJason Spezza: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:54STLJay Bouwmeester: Interference2 min
- P2 11:48STLColton Parayko: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:48DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 11:48DALBrett Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:09DALJoel L'Esperance: Interference2 min
- P3 5:29STLJaden Schwartz: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:48DALMiro Heiskanen: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:08STLVladimir Tarasenko: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Bozak – Thomas7:53
xG 0.58–0.10 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Maroon – Sundqvist – Sanford8:34
xG 0.55–0.22 (72%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Tarasenko – Schwartz11:24
xG 0.61–0.33 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- MacEachern – Fabbri – Barbashev4:49
xG 0.20–0.34 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn6:51
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson9:54
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Pietrangelo – Dunn3:54
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Ritchie – L'Esperance6:11
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Comeau – Benn – Faksa11:00
xG 0.50–0.30 (63%)attempts 9–10goals 3–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Dickinson5:06
xG 0.07–0.28 (20%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Hintz9:34
xG 0.29–0.83 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:10
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Fedun – Oleksiak11:24
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Heiskanen11:40
xG 0.39–0.68 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).