Thu, Feb 21, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New York Islanders 3, Edmonton Oilers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 313 | 04 | 06 | 00 | 323 |
| EDM | 215 | 08 | 117 | 11 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:12EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 6:30EDMSam GagnerAssists: Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 12:57NYIAnders LeeAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P1 19:21NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Ryan Pulock · Slap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P1 19:49NYICal ClutterbuckPPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Devon Toews · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 17:08EDMOscar KlefbomAssists: Milan Lucic, Colby Cave · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 1:22EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:14NYIJohnny Boychuk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:46NYIRyan Pulock: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:38EDMConnor McDavid: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 18:26NYIAnders Lee: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:26EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:26EDMKris Russell: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:46NYITom Kuhnhackl: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 5:40NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson10:40
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:07
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Nelson – Kuhnhackl2:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Beauvillier8:25
xG 0.05–0.38 (11%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Mayfield – Toews12:53
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:53
xG 0.25–0.78 (24%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:19
xG 0.45–1.07 (30%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl15:24
xG 1.09–0.35 (75%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Gagner – Kassian – McDavid8:04
xG 0.38–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave4:39
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Currie3:25
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom16:11
xG 1.01–0.62 (62%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse17:05
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning10:05
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).