Fri, Feb 22, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Ottawa Senators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 018 | 29 | 340 |
| OTT | 08 | 09 | 05 | 022 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43CBJJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Anthony Duclair · Slap, 0.00 xG1–0
- P3 6:45CBJCam AtkinsonSHAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P3 17:14CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Zach Werenski, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:45OTTMaxime Lajoie: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:51OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:55OTTChristian Jaros: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:13OTTColin White: Holding2 min
- P1 18:25CBJAnthony Duclair: Holding2 min
- P2 6:44CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 12:46CBJScott Harrington: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:01CBJNick Foligno: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Duchene – Panarin10:26
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Robinson8:48
xG 0.78–0.10 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Bjorkstrand – Dubois7:55
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Anderson8:37
xG 0.03–0.75 (3%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Kukan11:46
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Werenski11:53
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Savard – Nutivaara3:12
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Chlapik – Balcers2:23
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Chlapik – Balcers3:19
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Pageau – White3:05
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Boedker – Brown – Batherson2:32
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Chabot4:34
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Harpur – Jaros9:43
xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lajoie11:39
xG 0.49–0.77 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).