Sat, Feb 23, 2019·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 320 | 011 | 04 | 335 |
| TOR | 010 | 215 | 412 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:07MTLAndrew ShawAssists: Brett Kulak, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 12:44MTLTomas TatarAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 13:52MTLJeff PetryPPAssists: Andrew Shaw, Paul Byron · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 2:13TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 18:06TORTyler EnnisPPAssists: Patrick Marleau, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 6:58TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:10TORZach HymanGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:02TORAndreas JohnssonENAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
- P3 19:37TORZach HymanENAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Other, 0.75 xG3–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:24TORTravis Dermott: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:20TORJake Muzzin: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:07TORFrederik Andersen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:43MTLVictor Mete: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 16:19MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 12:05TORAndreas Johnsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Shaw – Domi10:33
xG 1.12–0.34 (77%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:41
xG 0.67–0.53 (56%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Thompson – Deslauriers – Peca8:05
xG 0.12–0.21 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi8:49
xG 0.19–0.31 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak13:00
xG 1.03–0.40 (72%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Petry – Reilly15:15
xG 0.69–0.31 (69%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Mete15:06
xG 0.35–1.00 (26%)attempts 7–28goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner12:44
xG 0.82–0.55 (60%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Marleau – Brown – Nylander11:01
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ennis – Gauthier – Lindholm6:37
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Matthews11:22
xG 0.34–1.16 (22%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev12:23
xG 0.56–0.34 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly15:46
xG 0.89–0.75 (54%)attempts 22–16goals 2–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:56
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).