Sat, Feb 23, 2019·Lincoln Financial Field, PhiladelphiaOutdoor game
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 118 | 112 | 110 | 03 | 343 |
| PHI | 18 | 09 | 218 | 12 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 12:06PHISean CouturierAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 10:01PITJustin SchultzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 6:29PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Zachary Aston-Reese · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 16:56PHIJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.00 xG3–2
- P3 19:40PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 1:59PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Nolan Patrick, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:47PHIRobert Hagg: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:47PITGarrett Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:23PHIWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 16:23PITKris Letang: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:03PITJack Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:51PITEvgeni Malkin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:51PHIRobert Hagg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:40PITMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Aston-Reese10:31
xG 1.36–0.39 (78%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Cullen – Wilson – Pearson6:37
xG 0.59–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Rust – McCann10:57
xG 0.36–0.15 (71%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel13:10
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Pettersson16:25
xG 1.88–0.35 (84%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin4:53
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz21:50
xG 0.94–0.71 (57%)attempts 22–18goals 2–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Laughton7:00
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier2:53
xG 0.11–0.17 (39%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl2:44
xG 0.03–0.11 (22%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom11:17
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov19:16
xG 0.73–0.63 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Hagg11:10
xG 0.21–0.78 (21%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Myers14:50
xG 0.25–1.15 (18%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).