Sun, Feb 24, 2019·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 5, Washington Capitals 6 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 17 | 113 | 310 | 01 | 531 |
| WSH | 27 | 113 | 212 | 13 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21NYRChris KreiderAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 18:42WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: John Carlson, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 19:03WSHMichal KempnyAssists: Brett Connolly, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:09WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 18:18NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Connor Brickley, Lias Andersson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 0:21NYRJimmy VeseyUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 2:25WSHNic DowdAssists: Travis Boyd, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 3:01WSHNicklas BackstromUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 6:01NYRVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Tony DeAngelo · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–5
- P3 19:29NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mika Zibanejad · Slap, 0.03 xG5–5
- OT 4:20WSHEvgeny KuznetsovGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.26 xG5–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 4:19NYRBrady Skjei: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:24WSHDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:39NYRLias Andersson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 6:01NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:47WSHMichal Kempny: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:47NYRLias Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:50WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:54WSHCarl Hagelin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:23WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:23NYRRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:23WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 6:23NYRTony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:23NYRRyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:23WSHMatt Niskanen: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:17WSHBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:17NYRConnor Brickley: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:17WSHBrooks Orpik: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Andersson – Chytil6:34
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Fast – Strome – Namestnikov9:01
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey10:58
xG 0.46–0.76 (38%)attempts 9–18goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pionk8:24
xG 0.92–0.63 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 3–2
- Staal – Pionk2:56
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Staal – DeAngelo10:34
xG 0.37–0.38 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Boyd6:42
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana12:46
xG 0.55–0.25 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky9:24
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:04
xG 0.23–0.82 (22%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny13:15
xG 0.94–0.60 (61%)attempts 19–17goals 3–2
- Orlov – Jensen3:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Orpik – Jensen6:51
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).