Sun, Feb 24, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 114 | 13 | 429 |
| CHI | 013 | 220 | 114 | 347 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35DALRadek FaksaAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 17:28DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 1:44DALMats ZuccarelloAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 2:58CHIChris KunitzAssists: Marcus Kruger, Duncan Keith · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 15:37CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Duncan Keith, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 4:16CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 8:55DALJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:35CHIJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:35DALJason Dickinson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:43DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:29DALAlexander Radulov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:25CHIDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 8:03CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:40DALBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:26DALRoman Polak: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Zuccarello – Seguin9:41
xG 0.90–0.27 (77%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Spezza – Dickinson – Hintz2:05
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Radulov – Seguin – Hintz2:49
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Dickinson2:24
xG 0.02–0.10 (17%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen10:00
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak6:19
xG 0.54–0.16 (77%)attempts 8–3goals 1–2
- Klingberg – Heiskanen4:02
xG 0.17–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Kane – Caggiula15:40
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Strome – DeBrincat – Kahun10:42
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden4:35
xG 0.09–0.41 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Anisimov – Saad – Sikura10:05
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Gustafsson9:22
xG 0.43–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Forsling3:02
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Koekkoek – Gustafsson5:57
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).