Mon, Feb 25, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 1, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 014 | 110 | 135 |
| NJD | 110 | 16 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:35NJDNathan BastianAssists: Connor Carrick, Egor Yakovlev · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 3:06NJDKurtis GabrielGWGAssists: Connor Carrick, Kevin Rooney · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–2
- P3 6:30MTLPaul ByronSHAssists: Phillip Danault · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:07MTLAndrew Shaw: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 9:38NJDMichael McLeod: Holding2 min
- P2 7:23NJDKurtis Gabriel: Interference2 min
- P2 12:26MTLMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:00MTLJoel Armia: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:00NJDNico Hischier: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:42MTLBrendan Gallagher: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:39NJDSteven Santini: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40MTLArtturi Lehkonen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 11:17NJDNico Hischier: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:45MTLPaul Byron: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Shaw – Domi9:01
xG 0.51–0.03 (94%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Tatar – Domi2:12
xG 0.02–0.01 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi5:17
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Drouin10:23
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly12:34
xG 0.61–0.18 (78%)attempts 18–3goals 0–0
- Reilly – Kulak2:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Weber – Benn2:01
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestAgostino – Gabriel – Rooney2:33
xG 0.23–0.05 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Quenneville – Hischier2:12
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stafford – Bastian – McLeod5:08
xG 0.16–0.13 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Agostino – Gabriel – McLeod2:19
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Yakovlev2:13
xG 0.28–0.04 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson13:57
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Carrick – Mueller13:22
xG 0.67–0.69 (49%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).