Mon, Feb 25, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Edmonton Oilers 2, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 19 | 09 | 19 | 00 | 1 | 227 |
| NSH | 010 | 212 | 015 | 01 | 2 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:08EDMLeon DraisaitlSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 11:43NSHColton SissonsAssists: Rocco Grimaldi, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:07NSHP.K. SubbanAssists: Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 9:12EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Alex Chiasson · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 3. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 4. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 5. NSH Filip Forsberg scored
- 6. EDM Sam Gagner scored
- 7. NSH Brian Boyle scored
- 8. EDM Ty Rattie stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:14EDMDarnell Nurse: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:18EDMAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:35NSHMatt Donovan: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:13NSHKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:24EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:29NSHKyle Turris: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:58EDMMikko Koskinen: Delaying game2 min
- OT 0:55EDMTobias Rieder: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Rieder – Draisaitl11:44
xG 0.44–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Malone – Rattie5:41
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gagner – Kassian – Nugent-Hopkins12:06
xG 0.43–0.62 (41%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Lucic – Cave – Currie7:43
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Benning9:14
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Russell – Nurse14:43
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 0–1
- Larsson – Klefbom19:49
xG 0.25–1.64 (13%)attempts 9–30goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Jarnkrok – Sissons10:06
xG 1.01–0.59 (63%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:02
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Grimaldi – Gaudreau2:59
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Bonino – Grimaldi8:51
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin7:04
xG 0.76–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm16:42
xG 0.68–0.46 (60%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis13:52
xG 0.74–0.55 (57%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).