Mon, Feb 25, 2019·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 0, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 014 | 08 | 07 | 029 |
| VAN | 26 | 110 | 113 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:04VANNikolay GoldobinGWGAssists: Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 16:40VANAlex BiegaAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 2:22VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–3
- P3 7:12VANBo HorvatAssists: Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:09ANADerek Grant: Holding2 min
- P1 13:21VANAntoine Roussel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:40ANABrendan Guhle: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:48VANBo Horvat: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Rowney – Ritchie4:22
xG 0.28–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Rakell – Sprong3:52
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Shore5:29
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Grant – Terry – Jones4:42
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolzer – Guhle7:40
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Fowler – Megna12:32
xG 0.45–0.18 (72%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Fowler – Guhle6:42
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Granlund – Horvat3:29
xG 0.19–0.00 (99%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson9:50
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Roussel – Granlund – Gaudette8:08
xG 0.17–0.37 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Spooner – Leivo – Horvat9:58
xG 0.41–0.64 (39%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Biega – Pouliot14:31
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
- Hutton – Stecher20:18
xG 0.47–0.77 (38%)attempts 20–20goals 0–0
- Schenn – Sautner13:12
xG 0.35–0.67 (34%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).