Tue, Feb 26, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Calgary Flames 3, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 110 | 28 | 327 |
| NYI | 05 | 112 | 010 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:57CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 7:39NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 3:15CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 5:12CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Austin Czarnik, Mark Giordano · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:46CGYDerek Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:31NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min
- P2 2:38NYINick Leddy: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:48CGYDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:24CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:09NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P2 18:39NYICal Clutterbuck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:44CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:12NYIMatt Martin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Bennett – Tkachuk7:19
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan6:42
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk3:30
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bennett – Czarnik2:10
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Prout12:34
xG 0.52–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin13:43
xG 0.65–0.46 (59%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson12:04
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Komarov – Barzal4:42
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson11:10
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Barzal5:23
xG 0.03–0.06 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Filppula – Komarov – Beauvillier2:44
xG 0.01–0.11 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Toews10:52
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Pelech – Pulock13:15
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy14:56
xG 0.57–0.95 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).